Oil market volatility: what investors should know

Friday, 31 July 2026

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Oil & Energy Intelligence

Market Commentary

Oil Giants Report Blowout Profits on War, Warn High Gas Prices Could Persist

Major oil companies like ExxonMobil and Chevron have reported record profits, driven by geopolitical tensions and the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, which have led to significant spikes in oil prices. This situation is expected to keep gasoline prices elevated as the market contends with potential supply disruptions, particularly from critical regions like the Partitioned Zone between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. With global demand still recovering post-pandemic and the risk of inflation rising, the tight supply environment may persist as these oil giants maintain capital discipline, limiting new production investments. Investors should remain vigilant regarding Middle Eastern developments and OPEC's output strategies, as the interplay of these factors could lead to sustained volatility in oil prices.

Oil Rises as Iran Says Ships Stopped in Strait of Hormuz

Oil prices have risen over 1% following Iran's announcement of stopping two vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil supply. This development raises concerns about potential supply disruptions, as the Strait is responsible for about 20% of the world's oil transport. Traders are reacting to the heightened geopolitical tensions, which could exacerbate existing supply constraints already impacted by OPEC+ production cuts and recovering demand. Investors should remain alert to the implications of these events, as any escalation could lead to further price increases and increased volatility in the energy markets.

New Stratus Energy | TSX.V: NSE

LATAM-focused oil and gas explorer and developer operating in Brazil - recognized as a Top Performer in the TSX Venture 50.

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US Oil Drillers Turn Cautious as WTI Holds Near $85 Per Barrel

US oil drillers are exhibiting caution as the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude price hovers near $85 per barrel, despite a slight increase in the active rig count. The total number of active oil rigs rose by one to 451, indicating a modest response to the high price environment, but the overall sentiment remains cautious among operators. This cautious approach could lead to slower production growth, which may support current price levels in the short term, but could also limit supply expansion if prices remain elevated. Investors should monitor these dynamics closely, as they could influence market stability and future price movements.

Oil Company News

Forum Energy Forecasts 2026 Revenue of $870M-$910M and EBITDA of $115M-$125M as Beat the Market Accelerates

Forum Energy (TSX: FET) has projected its 2026 revenue to be between $870 million and $910 million, with an EBITDA forecast of $115 million to $125 million, as its Beat the Market initiative gains traction. This guidance highlights the company's commitment to enhancing operational efficiency and increasing production volumes, which are vital for staying competitive in the oil and gas industry. The anticipated growth in revenue and EBITDA suggests a strong upward trajectory, positioning Forum Energy favorably in a volatile market. For investors, these projections indicate potential for significant returns as the company capitalizes on its strategic initiatives. Overall, this positive outlook underscores Forum Energy's resilience and adaptability in the evolving energy landscape.

Pemex Swings to $1 Billion Profit Buoyed by High Oil Prices

Pemex (NYSE: PMX) has reported a significant turnaround, swinging to a $1 billion profit, largely driven by high oil prices. This financial gain highlights the positive effects of elevated crude markets on national oil companies, especially those facing operational inefficiencies and substantial debt. The improved profitability could pave the way for increased investment in Mexico's oil sector, which has struggled with regulatory challenges and declining production rates. As Pemex aims to attract private partners, this financial boost may serve as a catalyst for revitalizing exploration and production efforts in the region. This development is particularly relevant for oil and energy investors looking for opportunities in emerging markets.

Tamarack Valley Energy | TSX: TVE

Pure-play Clearwater oil producer in Western Canada — low-cost structure, low decline rates, and a growing dividend backed by high-quality assets.

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Exxon and Chevron’s $26.5 Billion Quarter Draws Trump’s Ire

ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM) and Chevron (NYSE: CVX) reported a combined profit of $26.5 billion for the second quarter, reflecting their ability to capitalize on rising crude prices amid geopolitical turmoil. This impressive financial performance is attributed to their increased production and refining capabilities, particularly in light of the ongoing Iran conflict, which has led to supply disruptions and heightened demand for oil. The results underscore the resilience of these major players in the energy sector and highlight the significant impact of external factors on market dynamics. For investors, this strong quarter signals potential for continued profitability in a volatile market, raising questions about future pricing strategies and supply stability. Overall, the substantial earnings from these oil giants could influence investor sentiment and investment strategies in the energy sector going forward.

Imperial Outlines Plan to Repurchase All Remaining NCIB Shares by Year-end as Downstream Throughput Guidance is Cut ~6%

(TSX: IMO) Imperial Oil (TSX: IMO) has announced its intention to repurchase all remaining shares under its Normal Course Issuer Bid (NCIB) by the end of 2023, signaling a strong commitment to returning value to shareholders. However, the company has revised its downstream throughput guidance, now expecting a decrease of approximately 6%. This adjustment reflects anticipated operational challenges and may impact revenue projections moving forward. For oil and gas investors, the share repurchase plan is a positive indicator of financial health, while the cut in throughput guidance highlights potential volatility in production and revenue. Overall, these developments underscore the importance of monitoring operational performance alongside shareholder returns in the current market environment.

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For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.

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