Oil price surges. What's driving it?

Friday, 17 July 2026

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Oil & Energy Intelligence

Market Commentary

Oil Expert Stephen Schork Warns Prices Could Spike Again to $113

Stephen Schork's warning of a potential spike in oil prices to $113 highlights the precarious state of the energy market, particularly amid rising geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. With approximately 20% of the world's oil transiting this critical chokepoint, any disruption could lead to significant supply constraints, triggering panic buying and speculative trading that could push prices above $100. The current market is already sensitive to shocks due to OPEC+ production cuts and rebounding global demand, making it vulnerable to further escalation in military tensions or sanctions. Investors should remain alert, as these developments could not only drive prices higher but also impact inflation and economic growth in oil-dependent economies.

Chevron Slated to Sign Accords With Iraq for Oil Field Investments

Chevron's upcoming agreements with Iraq for oil field investments signal a potential increase in supply that could alleviate some of the upward pressure on oil prices. As the market contends with tight inventories and geopolitical uncertainties, the addition of new production from Iraq could counterbalance the bullish sentiment driven by fears of supply disruptions. While these investments may enhance Chevron's competitive position and market share, the actual impact on oil prices will hinge on the timely development of these fields and the broader OPEC+ production landscape. Investors should remain cautious, considering the operational risks in Iraq that could affect the pace of production ramp-up.

Oil Company News

TotalEnergies Sees Stronger Q2 Profit as Refining and Oil Trading Surge

TotalEnergies anticipates a significant increase in Q2 profits driven by robust refining margins and oil trading results, with expectations for higher cash flows from oil production. The company projects a production impact from the Middle East conflict to be around 210,000 boe/d, a decrease from the previously communicated guidance of 360,000 boe/d. This adjustment is attributed to increased production in the offshore United Arab Emirates and the resumption of output in other regional countries in June. TotalEnergies will report its full quarterly earnings on July 23, and the strong performance in downstream operations is crucial for investors to consider as it reflects the company's resilience amidst geopolitical tensions. Overall, these developments indicate a positive outlook for TotalEnergies, making it an important stock to watch for oil and gas investors.

Sunda Energy Applies for Offshore Taranaki Basin Exploration Permit

(LON: SUNA) UK-listed Sunda Energy has applied for a petroleum exploration permit (PEP) covering approximately 645km² in the offshore Taranaki Basin, New Zealand, which includes the Awakino gas condensate field. The application has been accepted by New Zealand Petroleum and Minerals (NZPAM), initiating a three-month competitive process that will conclude on 14 October 2026, allowing other companies to submit competing offers. Sunda Energy's proposed work program includes technical studies and the reprocessing of 450km² of 3D seismic data within 36 months of the permit award, aimed at delineating the Awakino gas field and supporting further appraisal. This development is significant for oil and gas investors as it highlights Sunda Energy's commitment to exploring and potentially expanding its resource base in a region known for hydrocarbon production. The outcome of this competitive process could impact the company's future growth and revenue potential. Overall, Sunda Energy's strategic move into the Taranaki Basin could enhance its portfolio and attract investor interest.

TAG Oil | TSX-V: TAO | OTCQB: TAOIF

Financially strong E&P focused on accelerated growth through acquisition in the Middle East and North Africa, currently operating the Abu Roash formation in Egypt's Western Desert.

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For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.

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